The Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has predicted above-normal rainfall in June and August 2024. The forecast indicates that the southern sector will experience a dry season, while above-average rainfall is expected in the southwestern, central, Lake Victoria basin, and eastern regions during the same period.
The forecast is based on various factors such as sea surface temperatures, Madden Julian Oscillations, Indian Ocean Dipole, ITCZ orientation, Congo Airmass circulation, topographical features, and large inland water bodies. Dry conditions are expected in central and southwestern Uganda, while the rest of the country is projected to receive near-normal to above-average rainfall.
Western Uganda is forecast to experience dry conditions in certain regions until mid-August, with isolated showers expected until the end of the season. Dry conditions mixed with isolated showers and spells are expected in the central region, Lake Victoria region, and eastern Uganda until early June.
The Eastern Region, including South Eastern, Eastern Kyoga, North Eastern, West Nile, Eastern Parts of Northern, and Central Northern parts, may experience a reduction in rainfall, with dry conditions expected until late July. Wet spells are likely to resume in late June.
The prediction suggests normal to above-average rainfall in the north and east but near-normal to below-normal rainfall in the south, which might impact agricultural production and food security.
UNMA has encouraged those in the agriculture and food security sectors to prepare for the potential effects of near-normal to below-normal rainfall, such as pasture and water shortages, crop stress, strong winds, fish migration, ghost fishing, and high-quality honey production.
Uganda generally experiences two major rainfall seasons: March-April-May (MAM) as the first season and September-October-November-December (SAND) as the second season. However, regions in the northern sector of the country experience a single rainfall season from April to November, with some relaxation around June.
In the previous season, Uganda experienced near-normal to above-normal rainfall, with seasonal rains beginning in the southern sector in early March and progressing towards the northern and northeastern regions by mid-March, accompanied by severe, isolated thunderstorms and strong winds.
The rainfall forecast is provided by the directorate of the National Meteorological Centre (NMC), which offers daily 24-hour and tailored weather forecasts for public services, aviation, and hazardous weather warnings and severe weather impacts. Additionally, it prepares meteorological products and impact assessments for distribution to customers.
